16 Jan 2005 Inside the Green Zone, Baghdad Iraq - Briefing by General David Petraeus General Petraeus, whom I had met some 18 months ago when in Mosul, Iraq, is now in charge of the Iraqi Security Force. It was with obvious enthusiasm that he related that they graduated their first class on January 6 of this year. Throughout the presentation he continued to emphasize that Iraqi leadership was key to this process. He stated that in some areas of the southern part of the country the entire spectrum of security is provided by the Iraqi Security Force. In the recent battle in Falluja, 2,800 members of the ISF have participated. The General state’s that NATO had helped with rebuilding the Iraqi police force and that much of the equipment with which the Iraqis are familiar is of an older Soviet-vintage, similar to that which many of the Eastern Bloc countries use. There have been some cultural difficulties; Iraqis will walk off of the job whether they are policeman or in the army. They see this as a cultural right, and periodically must reconnect with their families. Due to the lack of wire transfer capabilities and bank to check capabilities, these individuals must physically take pay home to their families. Once this problem was identified, and compensated for, relations with the Iraqi Army and Iraqi Police Force have been much smoother. Leadership is also important. Inspiration is key. The quality of any battalion is directly proportional to the quality of the Iraqi commander in charge. Still, the General feels that the individual Iraqi soldier fights for the same reason that other soldiers will fight –that is a strong commitment to the man fighting on either side of him. The General stated that money does matter and the recent pay increases have helped retention in the armed forces of Iraq. Combat is also weeding out those who are easily intimidated. On the whole, he was optimistic stating that they have built nine divisions of new Iraqi soldiers in the past year. It is his goal to drown the insurgents in a sea of Iraqi security forces. There has been no shortage of recruits, in spite of the attacks on Iraqi security forces by the insurgents, there are still many who are anxious to serve. Despite the focus placed upon the violence in Iraq, the General reported statistics showing that the trend of attacks is significantly down in the five or six weeks since the end of Ramadan. As far as the number of forces available, the General acknowledged that the numbers vary and so reports will be different. He stated his criteria -it is the number trained and equipped. This number currently stands at 127,000. There are many more currently in training, and approximately 75,000 Iraqis involved in facilities protection, which are not include in his estimate. Following the briefing by General Petraeus, our group traveled to the United States Embassy in Baghdad. There we were met by Ambassador Negroponte and his staff. They provided us with some significant insights into the upcoming elections. Additionally, with an eye beyond the elections, there was considerable discussion about rebuilding effective institutions in Iraq. The discussion turned to the expected turnout for the election. One of the ambassador’s staff members described what he called the “high noon” effect. He stated that at present the townspeople were not quite ready to come to Gary Cooper's side, but he felt that that day was not far off. Ambassador Negroponte said that he anticipated spectacular violence but questioned in the end if that would matter. He stated that the citizens of this country have a high pain threshold and that they have been living with violence and a question of intimidation on a day-to-day basis. He felt a lot of people would make the decision about voting on Election Day and felt that there may be a mass psychology, which may create a surprisingly high turnout. Lunch was followed by a trip to the Embassy annex. This building previously housed the Coalition Provisional Authority prior to the handover of sovereignty last summer. Steve Casteel talked about the progress he has made in the last 15 months. Casteel said that this was the largest Iraqi police effort ever attempted and that most of the failures they encountered were failures in leadership; but that they are stressing quality over quantity. Now, as they are charges with fighting the insurgency, this quality of leadership becomes even more critical. He stressed that the solutions must be Iraqi solutions, and that they must respect the process. He reports that this was a long-term process rather than a short-term solution because even though they are fighting the insurgency now, organized crime may be an issue at a later date. There was also some discussion that they were recruiting former members of the Iraqi policy, who ranged in rank from commanders to lower-ranking individuals. He said in their training they stress to recruits to not break the law, kill someone or waste money unless it is absolutely necessary. Overall, public opinion of the Iraqi police is very high. He noted that 1,500 Iraqi policeman had died in the past 15 months. He also stressed flexibility and stated that the shelf-life of any plan in Iraq was about 30 days. He stated that the insurgency is capable of almost immediate change. In spite of this, he noted that every day his force was stronger and that historically it takes time to rebuild a police force. He stressed that his mission was capable of the flexibility required. We were then joined by General Peter Casey who is the commander of all activity in Iraq. He too stressed that the overall level of violence in Iraq has decreased in the past two months. Even though the perception was that the instability had worsened, Casey said the currently, the insurgents have no reason to hold back. But he did know that many people in Iraq have never voted, and that they deserve a chance to reject the régime of Saddam Hussein. He stated that the future of Iraq was an inclusive government. The General stated that type of intimidation techniques currently in use were those employed by the former régime for 35 years. Much of the public's response is an expected conditioned response because they are so used to this type of intimidation that they register almost no reaction. They learned under Saddam’s régime that resistance was futile. It is now the pace at which the Iraqi Army is taking over protection of its own country that is a major question. In April of 2004 the army was not ready, but it now has equipment that it did not have last year. Carlos Valenzuela We met with Carols Valenzuela the United Nations official in charge of overseeing the elections. He stated that the preparations are all currently on schedule. He felt that the threats were not surprising, but there was concern for security at district levels. Their greatest concern was for a catastrophic event that might lead to massive resignations from his elections staff. It seems that Mr. Valenzuela is somewhat surprised that the numbers of resignations from his staff are quite low –in fact –lower than normally expected. Prime Minister Allawi We had a lengthy and wide ranging conversation with the Prime Minister. He seemed relaxed and quite confident about the upcoming election and acknowledged that there are those who have called for a delay in the election process. He stated that those who opposed the January license were unable to articulate a reason for postponement. He stated that if there are those who choose to not participate, either because of intimidation or boycott, that the door will remain open. He noted that the January election selecting the NSC is followed by a vote to ratify the Iraqi Constitution and, by year’s end, a third vote to elect an Iraqi Assembly. He stated what matters most is what kind of Iraq we have at the end of the process. He stated that Iraq has its roots in ancient civilization. He relished the opportunity for Iraq to spread the cause of democracy to other areas of the Middle East, which will make the cost and the risk of liberating Iraq worthwhile. Terrorism he said will continue after the elections because there will always be those who resist stability, but it will become more and more difficult to unravel the community. On the question of turnout, the Prime Minister stated that he meets with Sunni leaders throughout the country. Some of these leaders are committed to delay, and he believes that by continuing to educate them it will add to the overall strength of the country in the future. At this point, he became fairly philosophical and said he had spent the best part of his life fighting for freedom for his country -- and now this freedom is at the doorstep. He would not allow these individuals to distract the process. He stated that if they cannot participate now, there will be a space open for them to participate in the future. “We don’t want the radical forces to win now, nor do we want outside forces from Syria or Iran to take over. I am a practical person. The Sunnis are changing. The process is slow but our only hope for everyone is to engage in the process and distance ourselves from the terrorists. February 1st begins the next chapter in our country's history.” The Prime Minister noted that the insurgents were motivated by a lack of power, and they had no real objectives. He felt that this is the reason they will ultimately lose. Iraq must work to build its own security. He stated that they were at a crossroads, but we need now is more effort, more understanding and more vision. He was asked what message he would like to deliver to the American people, and he replied that all of Iraq is appreciative of the sacrifice of the Americans. He emphasized that it was important that the voices of reason prevail. He felt it was beneficial to use good relations to urge people to participate. He stated that we must get other countries to stop meddling in Iraq's affairs of state. He reserved particularly harsh criticism for the country of Iran, which he said wants to take people back in time 1,500 years. He stressed that patience is necessary. While they are making progress, in must be stressed that the value of Iraq to the United States is a strategic relationship. This in turn can assist in the fight against radical Islamic fundamentalism. It is a chance for civilization to triumph over chaos. It is a chance for a more rational world, which in turn will be a better world. General Peter Chiarelli General Peter Chiarelli talked to us about the difficulties in controlling the areas of Northern Baghdad, particularly the area around Sader City. The total population of Baghdad is 6 to 7 million people and the average life expectancy is 58 years old (this is largely due to disease and the effects of unsafe drinking water). The General said that attacks recently have decreased. The biggest threat remains the vehicle bombs and improvised explosive device, but that they have given the enemy a look that he has never seen before. Combat operations are at unprecedented levels. This is a war unlike any other the General said because of the component of international terrorist networks which are operating in the country. The General stated that the work was proceeding along five fronts. In addition to combat operations there was also a major push to train and employ Iraqi Security Forces. At the same time they are working for the restoration of essential services. They are promoting governance and economic pluralism within their area of the country. The General observed that they will never lose a tactical fight, but it is critically important to keep up all levels of engagement. One of the General's major frustrations is the inability to let the media know that all of these lines are important. Television will continue to focus on the story of the bombing and not the story about how the men and women helping (Camp Victory has put 18,000 people to work in Sader City). Following a visit with the General, we were again allowed to visit with the troops stationed at Camp Victory. Again we encountered young men and women whose morale was high, and whose focus was on the mission at hand. Again they were emphatic that I bring the story back to the United States that there was gifted improvement seen in their area on a day-to-day basis. While every one of them is anxious to come home, they recognize the importance of their work and are willing to stay until the job is done.